2013 RFS QUOTAS PUBLISHED — ONLY 3 MONTHS LATE

The EPA is supposed to publish the proposed annual RFS quotas in November of each year, then there is a mandatory 45 day comment period and then the proposal is enacted.  I might add that it is enacted as proposed no matter what the comments are, as the request for waiver of the RFS by five states proved last year during the drought.  If the EPA followed their own rules that would mean that everyone would know the annual quotas on the first day of the year.

To see a full copy of the 2013 RFS NPRM click here.

Here is the pertinent information as it applies to blending levels of ethanol into our total gasoline supply:

Advanced biofuel 1.60%
Renewable fuel     9.63%

If you add those two blending levels you will note that the total blending percentage is 11.23%, which means that every drop of gasoline sold in the U.S. will have to be E10 and there will be ethanol left over since the amount of E85 and E15 is totally insignificant and neither of them is growing.  The only reason we didn’t hit the blending wall hard last year was that there is a loophole in the law that allows gasoline producers to carry forward 20% of their RINS into the following year.

I wonder if one reason that the NPRM is three months late is because it is becoming glaringly obvious that the blending quotas are unsustainable and it will become embarrassingly obvious that the RFS is going to implode soon, as anyone with an ounce of math skills can figure out … DUH!